Commercial Ties and Geopolitical Conflict: The China-Japan dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands

Abstract: The conflict between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands challenges conventional thinking on the commercial peace. The fact that economic interdependence has failed to deter repeated militarized disputes between the two countries seems to support the primacy of realist geopolitical thinking over the economic benefits of shared commercial ties. A more indepth look into the series of crises over the islands, however, reveals active intervention by business leaders in both countries when tensions risk violent conflict to restore a more favorable trading environment. This paper argues for a more nuanced variant of the commercial peace emphasizing the power of business in managing the escalation of a militarized conflict. My two-level theory is tested with a process-tracing study investigating the relative influence of business interests on Chinese and Japanese policy-making over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute. Doing so reveals the significance of business influence on conflict management, as well as the temporal variation in the goals of national leaders balancing the interests of multiple societal groups to remain in power.

When It Is Not “Business as Usual”: Petro-states and International Conflict

Abstract: While there is increasing recognition that petrostates are more militaristic than their counterparts, it remains unclear why economic dependence on oil revenue leads to such belligerence. In this paper, I argue that one important cause of petrostate aggression can be explained in a two-level theoretical framework of the commercial peace, which asserts that the extent to which economic interdependence reduces militarized conflict depends on the degree of business influence on foreign policymaking. My research reveals that petrostates have significantly smaller private sectors than other states. Therefore, these countries are not constrained by the effect of economic interdependence in contrast to their non-petrostate counterparts. Quantitative analyses show that the pacific effects of economic interdependence are nullified for dyads containing at least one petrostate. This paper also provides a process tracing study of Colombia-Venezuela relations illustrating the link between oil dependence and business influence on dispute resolution.

The Enduring Quest for Kantian Peace: Assessing Simultaneous Equation Models on the Relationship of Economic Interdependence and Interstate Conflict

Abstract: In recent years  researchers have turned to simultaneous equation models to deal with the endogeneity of trade and conflict. Relying on the latest insights from identification theory for two stage least square models, this paper contends that the two most recent models Keshk, Pollins, and Rueveny (2004) and Hegre, Oneal and Russett (2010) are both misspecified, leading to biased results. This paper then uses their data to create a better specified model affirming the liberal position that an increase in total trade between a dyad will reduce the probability that the dyad will engage in a conflict with fatalities

Business Power in International Relations: Tracing the Power and Limits of Business Interests on Interstate Conflict

Abstract: How much influence does business have on international politics? This question lies at the heart of the contested claims between realists and liberals on the determinants of international conflict. Business power, however, remains an underdeveloped topic in political science. Even rarer are studies that examine the domestic politics of commercial enterprises and government on foreign policy. This paper explores this issue with two process tracing studies on the strategic rivalries of Colombia-Venezuela and China-Japan. In both studies, it is possible to trace the variation in policy responses to repeated issues of conflict. They also provide the opportunity to study hypothesized domestic determinants of business power such as regime type, major power status, and economic integration. While this paper cannot settle whether realist security concerns or liberal economic issues should be given primacy when studying international conflict, it does provide evidence on the potential for nontraditional sources of power, in this case from business, to influence interstate relations. In doing so, this paper contributes to the larger literature on international conflict by incorporating the importance of the domestic political structure.

Interstate Conflict Forecasting: Insights from Machine Learning Approaches

Abstract: This paper applies recent advances in machine learning to improve quantitative assessments of causes of interstate conflict by more robustly testing the causal impact of economic interdependence and the influence of the private sector. These out of sample prediction models have several advantages over the traditional logit analysis. The relative rarity of militarized disputes with fatalities has long been a challenge for regression models. ML offers better tools for working with unbalanced datasets for the use of rare event detection including resampling techniques to create more balanced datasets (e.g., SMOTE) and ensemble techniques (e.g., random forest and gradient boosting). Predictive ML modeling approaches are more suited for handling endogenous effects, unobserved heterogeneity, and temporal dynamics in the interstate conflict models. Most importantly, ML techniques provide superior estimates of the relative impact of a variable, such as economic interdependence, the democratic peace or balance of power, given the simultaneous contributions of other variables. For example, when predicting the effects of a rising China on international security, having the ability to assess the size of a variable’s causal effect using out of sample data that allows for more substantive analyses and could translate into more specific policy recommendations.